… right now say that McCain has chosen Pawlenty as his running mate. His Intrade stock is currently around 80% right now, and Romney is down at 15%.
I’m a little disappointed. Maybe I just don’t know Pawlenty well now (right now it seems like no one knows him). But it seems like he is a pretty low-key, undynamic politician. Romney brings some baggage, and it’s unfortunate that McCain laid into him a few times at the convention, but I don’t know anyone who has had a more enthusiastic following among Republicans.
McCain’s campaign has suffered from its slow pace and lack of vigor. Romney might have brought some excitement back to the campaign. I’m not sure Pawlenty, whoever he is, can.
said
Wallace Forman
@ 8:50 PM.
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Thats the word. Romney’s Intrade stock took a ~20% hit today but he is still on top. The biggest gain has been for Texas Sen. Kay Hutchison. Though McCain is not expected to announce until Friday, I’m sure the news will leak, at least on Intrade, sometime Thursday!
UPDATE: Romney’s back up at 70%, Hutchison back down in the single digits. I guess her bounce was just a reaction to the story above, and not to any larger leak. Watch the numbers tonight!
said
Wallace Forman
@ 11:13 PM.
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For those of us who were secretly rooting for Romney back in the primaries (me), conventional wisdom has some good news. According to the Intrade Prediction Markets, Romney is the betting favorite to be selected for McCain’s VP!
For reference, here is how Biden’s Intrade stock did in the last month.
Looking through the last-week performances of the other Democratic contenders, it seems like the markets did a pretty good job: Biden was the favorite at around 40% probability. Is conventional wisdom just that good? Or are these markets strongly affected by rumors and insider trading leaking from the campaigns?
For a related question, why has Romney’s stock skyrocketed from around 30% to 60% in the last two days? Has their been some audible murmurs from the McCain staffers? Or did the Biden announcement just get a bunch of people curious and generate a new round of Intrade betting? I know that that’s what drove me to Intrade.
How should we feel about a Romney selection? I have mixed feelings about it. I think he’d be a very competent VP, but I’m not sure how palatable he is to the American electorate. But then, I’m not sure any Republican but John McCain is palatable to anyone right now. Romney will hold down the Mormon vote for Republicans at least.
said
Wallace Forman
@ 6:10 PM.
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